Showing posts with label Labour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Labour. Show all posts

Sunday, 31 July 2016

Who Governs Britain?

It just doesn’t feel like any of the people around now will be our voting options at the next election.

Jeremy Corbyn was an unlikely leader before he got in, it was a shock (good or bad) when he did, and he’s stayed precarious and unlikely ever since. Theresa May is seen as a competent politician, but that doesn’t put her in front of others. As a candidate she didn’t stand out so much as have no competition. She isn’t idiosyncratic or a conspicuously unlikely leader, it’s more just… ‘why her?’

So both parties feel as though they could just as easily be led by somebody else, rather than having leaders who are the spearhead of a particular direction the party is currently taking. Admittedly maybe Corbyn could have been a spearhead, if he had had a following louder than any other division or faction currently vying for exposure in Labour.

But then it’s refreshing that a lot of the likely leaders that have been gestating in the politics of the last 10-15 years have almost all gone. We hadn’t been managing staggering margins in election results with them as leaders or cabinet/shadow cabinet figures. This doesn’t really feel like something new, though. Something old has gone, but without there being replacements.

Jeremy Corbyn appears to be publicized and managed by the same crass team that clearly jizzed to West Wing as kids and wanted to inject ass kicking procedural confidence into Ed Miliband – regardless of the material they were working with. Jeremy Corbyn is noble on paper and in deed, or in track record, but he isn’t his PR team, who clearly use the same rules of engagement as Miliband’s team – they look at top ten lists of stats on Twitter and Buzzfeed, think the public also wants politics reduced down into that (and intelligence and morals and ethics and debate), and then copy and paste. ‘People will love this.’ This was how the remain teams helped us out of the EU.

Theresa May is who we have for the moment, regardless. Her inaugural speech was a promising mix of bring me your black, your gay, your poor… inclusiveness and confidence. In her recent past she was big enough to admit to changing her mind on gay adoption, and supported same sex marriage ahead of a lot of her colleagues.

On the side away from liberal, Theresa May became notable a few years back for high profile deportations and attempted deportations. The media liked to portray her as a tough figure who’d get it done, who wouldn’t take any nonsense from foreign leaders. She’s noted that the status of EU nationals in the UK is negotiable.

Without irony, rather a lot of countries use this vocabulary of competition, of having to look out for ourselves because otherwise we will get stamped on. Because all the other countries are selfish, we must be more selfish. This is why Boris Johnson’s fans are also fans of Boris’s new position post Brexit vote – he puts Britain first, others behind.

Brexit. We were a nation in thirds it seems. A third wanted in the EU, were liberal and internationalist and multiculturalist; a third were concerned about immigration and its economic and cultural impact, coupled with the cultural and (costly) economic impact of being in the EU, enough to want to leave; the last third felt the same as the second, but were unsure about leaving because of the uncertainty of having Britain going out on its own.

A potent two thirds, it seems. A momentous decision that wasn’t really made with that much momentum. Nobody really had to change their opinions. Nobody really said anything to change anybody’s opinions, either. The EU, the referendum result: everything was a given to all involved (whether they were for or against). So we’ve now perhaps woken up with the shock of a surprise result after mental listlessness. Although it’s not really as though politics is springing to action.

“Theresa May seems to think her main task is to reunite the Tory Party, an impossible alliance of people with wholly incompatible beliefs, and a major obstacle to intelligent thought or useful action.  Surely that’s the last thing Britain actually needs? Many of her party (perhaps Mrs May herself) would surely be happier in New Labour, or merging with it, if unity is what they want. What's quite certain is that New Labour would be happier with Mrs May as their leader than with Jeremy Corbyn, which I for one find quite funny”

No particular leaders, no particular leaning towards either party (at once both different and interchangeable: Conservatives and Labour – radically different ideas packaged the same way (sometimes vice versa)), soundtracked soundbites, emotive and six words long. Obsessed with getting the message across, less the message.

Even if May v Corbyn is here to stay, what are the big themes now? The last government or so had the Economic Crisis to deal with. Now it’s more just (just!) the economy, which is far more nebulous to affect, understand or report news on. Everything’s still stinging: flukey property market, b-all interest rates… but that’s almost become normal, rather than post financial crash. We’re kind of out of or kind or ‘meh’ with any foreign interventions. Even the EU is sort of settled, although its ingredients will still be in our vocabulary – split opinions on immigration, foreign aid, money going abroad to investments and business contracts. Just because we’re ‘back in control’ it doesn’t mean that we won’t make the same choices we used to blame the EU for.

One by one we are ticking off the things that preoccupy people when they try and volunteer their interests in politics and in voting a particular way. We are going to run out of concrete things to say are making us unhappy and messing up our private lives. We’re heading towards nuance.

We can’t get majorities out of elections. I guess there’s a nice pluralism in that – saying none of the parties speak to you means, in another light, that there are certain things you like and certain things you don’t in all of the parties. Similarly with leaving the EU – at least it wasn’t a huge majority in one direction. People had things they liked and things they didn’t.

If we were rabidly anti-immigrant and nationalistic exclusively... man... and with having such potential to live a modern, open life where it’s easy to be informed about all events and cultures in our country and the world, so easy to be little l liberal, and easier to have free time and some money to pursue a fun life outside of work. Having all of that going for us, and yet still being preoccupied with migrants and pounds and pennies being creamed off tax payers’ money? Boy, that would be grim.

Pounds and pennies. We do seem to have a strange fixation on using up time and money, and finding someone to blame the constant shortfall on. So we set up migration as an opponent in this fight for resources, this idea that Britain is too crowded, that our personal lives are being made difficult by too many people needing the same things, or that our favourite goods and events and memories are being taken away by the dilution of culture.

Is our culture being watered down by the lifestyles of the 13% of our foreign born population? Culture is almost as nebulous as the country. What is culture? Food, art, dancing, slang… is any of this shit uniform nationally? Or even shared by a majority?  Are there things that everybody shares?

I mean, regions have differences, north and south has differences, people live in various combinations and economic levels everywhere. Apart from, like, breathing air, there are hardly any experiences shared by the majority of the population. We’re not all sitting down in front of Corrie with a mug of tea and talking about the rain every night. Look at the stats.

Transatlantically we’re looking at politics that’s charged by, feeding on, the immigration issue. It’s the only thing left to hold on to while the parties (both British and US) endure a long term lack of direction and unity as their most recent narrative changing, bona fide leader figures slip into history.

And while what’s up next might appear to be a quest for party unity (for Labour: uniting behind a leader; for the Conservatives: uniting on what Britain’s interface with the wider world and population should be), that’s hardly new, and who really cares? It’s only really a story when there’s no other news story to trump (Trump?) it. Maybe America needs to iron out its presidential results before we can see what’s about to hit us.

Thursday, 30 April 2015

How to Create Merry Hell: An Informed Choice for Election 2015



In 2010 the UK budget deficit (also ‘UK net borrowing’) was around £148bn. It’s now at £90bn (the next highest (hm, ‘deficit’ …lowest?) figure from 1979 to pre-crash 2007 was £50bn). But that’s what’s chipping away year by year. We are still getting further into debt by an annual £90bn.

Total debt, the National debt, is rising and has been since 2003. It’s currently at £1.56 trillion. It goes up by £2bn a week. As a percentage of GDP it’s less scary – post war it reached nearly 250%; now it’s about 81%. It was about half that 10-15 years ago.

But back to the yearly budget deficit book balancing. At debatable levels of ‘need,’ we need £12bn of welfare cuts.

Pensions make up half of the welfare budget, and they are protected. So where are the cuts going to come from? Child benefits! At least we know where the leaks are going to come from – the Lib Dems.


Thursday Next


So what is it? Austerity and those shameless welfare cuts taken to yet more unprecedented levels under the Conservatives, ‘everything paid for without any more borrowing’ from Labour, just as long as you don’t expect a timetable, ‘everything paid for by leaving the EU’ from UKIP – or something,  ‘all the things Labour are scared of doing’ from the SNP,  Lib Dems in the middle, or no cutting at all from the Greens (spending and borrowing, in fact – working/earning our way out of debt).

What are the questions being bandied about? Are they, in all honesty, your questions, when it comes to voting – if you vote?

Why won’t they say what they are planning? Has the government been competent with the economy? Would Labour be any better? Is there any difference between what the parties are offering? Do you want an EU referendum? What does the NHS need? Coalition threats. Would Nicola Sturgeon really create a sort of American cholesterol affair – where everyone’s blocked by everyone else’s intransigence in the House/Senate?


Will they/won’t they coalition options. Every leader and spokesperson’s giving love, hate and back again descriptions of their potential partners. Surely the oddest time to be making coalition threats is at the end of a five-year …coalition. In May 2010 the vibe of “no majority: it’s the end of the world and Jeremy Vine’s career as we know it” lasted right up to and through election night. Then the coalition started and we realized it’s more… ‘meh.’ We’re hardly milking fear of the unknown here.

But back then, because of all the apocalyptic wobbles and the tardy election outcome, the Lib Dems and Conservatives fought it out and, a year later, we got the compromise AV vote. That got a woeful response, with claims that everybody thought it was a terrible idea/was scared of it/couldn’t understand it. Though the BBC reckons it might have helped towards a Conservative victory next week had it gone through.

In any case, the polls aren’t predicting majorities any time soon. What is changing, exactly? Has the rise of the other parties taken votes away, preventing the snuggly, warm majorities the Conservatives and Labour once reached? Adding up the votes and seats for the ‘main two’ here:


1987: Con + Lab votes = 73.0% of the vote and 93.1% of seats (605/650)
1992: Con + Lab votes = 76.3% of the vote and 93.2% of seats (607/651)
1997: Con + Lab votes = 73.9% of the vote and 88.5% of seats (583/659)
2001: Con + Lab votes = 72.4% of the vote and 87.9% of seats (579/659)
2005: Con + Lab votes = 67.6% of the vote and 85.6% of seats (553/646)
2010: Con + Lab votes = 65.1% of the vote and 86.8% of seats (564/650)
[Guardian 30th April]     2015: Con + Lab votes = 66.9% of the vote and 83.5% of seats (543/650)


Well, going down I guess (and they seem to have consistently shared 98% of the seats from the ‘40s to 1970 – before pretty Jeremy Thorpe’s Liberals started to show promise and then naughty old Shirley Williams and her Social Democrats broke free). But see: Tony Blair got a majority when Labour and the Conservatives only had 85.6% of the seats to vie for in 2005, yet there was no majority in 2010 when the parties shared 86.8%.

Labour won with 35.2% of the popular vote in 2005; the Conservatives didn’t win with 36.1% in 2010. Welcome to statistics.

And those winning figures – looking a little low? Remember GCSE level history and politics lessons, folks – first past the post can all too often mean that most people in the country don’t vote for the winning party. Blair’s best: 43.2%; Thatcher’s best: 43.9%; Churchill’s best: 48.0%. Welcome to democracy.



Have a seat. The possible loss of single party majorities here is not so much about the smaller parties leeching votes. Like it or not, it’s the number of seats that counts, rather than the percentage of the popular vote (it’s not like Strictly or X-Factor where things modulate with the judges’ scores/choices or whatever). 86% of the seats has been more than enough to generate a majority government before. 83.9% of seats was all there was to be had in 1931, but the Conservatives got in by a landslide.

It’s really about the lack of a clear winner/loser between the Conservatives and Labour. 1931 saw the Conservatives win 470 seats and Labour …46 (admittedly that marks the last outright majority in an election. 1931, kids – granny wasn’t even born). 2015 currently looks to be: Conservatives 276 and Labour 267. Welcome to symmetry.

Perhaps it’s the crucial swing seats that have gone over to the other parties and pwned the chance of a Conservative or Labour win – but then that’s what was wrong in the first place.


Because they haven’t changed much it means they won’t change. So we won’t bother electioneering or reporting politics there as much – that feedback loop where the current situation becomes the cause of the current situation.

It’s like people who don’t vote: the parties don’t rely on those peoples’ votes and don’t put their issues on the agenda, so then those people don’t vote, so…


Thursday Next


Informed choice. That’s got to be democracy. Let’s face it, a handful of soundbites and bad jokes from the respective parties’ giggling speechwriting pools isn’t doing very much to help.

Apathy. No winning majorities. It’s not because they are all the same. It might be because, once in power, policy gets hammered and flattered by legislative issues, circumstances and all the things that can crop up over five years – so every government turns out to be the same.

But there are differences between these parties and their many, many members’ hearts and minds, differences both generous, clever, noble, disingenuous, cynical and degenerate, and these are evidenced when they plan their manifestos. If you want to make a choice at the box-ticking stage it’ll only be real if you know what the differences are.

It takes minutes. Just run through a couple of apps. They ask a few questions and then give you your leaning towards each party based on their policies. There’s VoteMatch. There’s ISideWith. There’s Who Shall I Vote For?

Locally you can check through your candidates. And if you want to see your current MP’s track record then type your postcode into They Work For You. It’s nice and concise, too.

The apps/quizzes are also useful for showing what’s making the agenda and the narratives and questions policy gets formed around.

Cutting the deficit? Public service cuts? HS2? Skilled migrants? Tuition fees? Free school meals/winter fuel allowance? NHS/privatisation? EU? Capping emissions? Foreign aid? Bedroom tax? Zero-hours? Tax rates for rich? Capping rents? Help to buy?

And there are, perhaps, some surprises separating the parties:

No one should be imprisoned for possession of drugs for personal use
Do you support the legalisation of same sex marriage?

Should terminally ill patients be allowed to end their lives via assisted suicide?
Should the UK reinstate the death penalty?
Should the British Monarchy be abolished?

Answering the questions and getting my recommended parties, I was surprised by the percentage difference between the parties I tend to consider and the ones I do not – they are poles apart. The parties are answering policy questions very differently in their manifestos at least.